Token Oscar Picks

After failing horribly at my Razzie Picks last night, I feel a little more confident going into the Oscars, especially since I've actually seen some of these flicks.

So here are my picks for some of the big 83rd Academy Awards categories:

Best Writing, Screenplay Based on Material Previously Produced or Published

• Danny Boyle & Simon Beaufoy, 127 Hours
• Aaron Sorkin, The Social Network
• Michael Arndt, John Lasseter, Andrew Stanton & Lee Unkrich, Toy Story 3
• Joel & Ethan Coen, True Grit
• Debra Granik & Anne Rosellini, Winter's Bone

Token Pick: Aaron Sorkin.  Does anyone really think Sorkin won't be walking off with an Oscar tonight?  His script was typical of his style, but fantastically brilliant.

Best Writing, Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen

• Mike Leigh, Another Year
• Scott Silver, Paul Tamasy, Eric Johnson & Keith Dorrington, The Fighter
• Christopher Nolan, Inception
• Lisa Cholodenko & Stuart Blumberg, The Kids Are All Right
• David Seidler, The King's Speech

Token Pick: The King's Speech.  While Nolan's Inception was mind blowingly frightening, Seidler's story of the King who wasn't suppose to be, overcoming his horrible stutter, was the kind of thing Oscar loves.

Best Achievement in Directing

• Darren Aronofsky for Black Swan
• Joel & Ethan Coen for True Grit
• David Fincher for The Social Network
• Tom Hooper for The King's Speech
• David O. Russell for The Fighter

Token Pick: David Fincher.  Now, keep a close eye on this, because usually whoever wins Best Director means that movie will win Best Picture, but we could see a first tonight.  I say Fincher's ability to use smooth camera moves to make hooded sweatshirts look cool with Aaron Sorkin's words beats out Hooper's royal King's Speech.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role

• Amy Adams for The Fighter
• Helana Bonham Carter for The King's Speech
• Melissa Leo for The Fighter
• Hailee Steinfeld for True Grit
• Jacki Weaver for Animal Kingdom

Token Pick: Melissa Leo.  All signs seem to indicate this will be only one of The Fighter's big awards.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role

• Christian Bale for The Fighter
• John Hawkes for Winter's Bone
• Jeremy Renner for The Town
• Mark Ruffalo for The Kids Are All Right
• Geoffrey Rush for The King's Speech

Token Pick: Christian Bale.  And this will be the other award for the Fighter, most likely barely beating out Geoffrey Rush's brilliance.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role

• Annette Bening for The Kids Are All Right
• Nicole Kidman for Rabbit Hole
• Jennifer Lawrence for Winter's Bone
• Natalie Portman for Black Swan
• Michelle Williams for Blue Valentine

Token Pick: Natalie Portman.  After collecting the Independent Spirit Award last night, she has a bunch of trophies on her mantle for the title role.  Looks like Oscar will be joining them.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role

• Javier Bardem for Biutiful
• Jeff Bridges for True Grit
• Jessee Eisenberg for The Social Network
• Colin Firth for The King's Speech
• James Franco for 127 Hours

Token Pick: Colin Firth.  Firth's turn as the Royal Monarch was mesmerizing, and will earn him his first Oscar of his already storied acting career.

Best Motion Picture of the Year

• 127 Hours
• Black Swan
• The Fighter
• Inception
• The Kids Are All RIght
• The King's Speech
• The Social Network
• Toy Story 3
• True Grit
• Winter's Bone

Token Pick: The King's Speech.  While The Social Network grabbed all the early critics awards, The King's Speech has won the awards that matter when picking a winner for the Academy.  In other words, in other award shows where members of the Academy are also voting members, The King's Speech wins.  So this year, for what may be the first time, we'll have a different movie winning Best Picture and Best Director.

Check out all the nominees here, and don't forget to watch on ABC.